State Sets Tone, Alibaba Turns Page, Direction Drastically Changes

State Sets Tone, Alibaba Turns Page, Direction Drastically Changes

2024-06-14 116 50

Here is the translation of the provided text into English: Back, it's all back.

In August, significant signals came in densely, and the country set the tone: the three major industries of the Internet, education and training, and gaming have completely changed their direction.

This highly unusual month is likely to change the trend of China's economy in the second half of the year.

On the last working day of August, the State Administration for Market Regulation announced that Alibaba has completed three years of rectification.

The announcement clearly stated that the next step is for the market supervision authority to guide Alibaba Group to continue to regulate its operations: to further improve compliance quality and efficiency, accelerate innovation-driven development, and continuously improve service levels to provide a solid guarantee for building a world-class enterprise and enhancing international competitiveness.

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What does this mean?

You should savor it carefully.

This wording is definitely a symbolic change.

Three years ago, Alibaba was heavily fined 18.228 billion yuan by the regulators and suffered the iron fist of "anti-monopoly".

At that time, the platform economy was in a state of panic.

Now the country has taken action to set the tone and finally turned the page.

As soon as the news came out, Alibaba's stock price rose.

Why was the penalty for Alibaba made in April, but the announcement of the completion of the three-year compliance report was left until August?

Why is the gaming industry no longer a "street rat", and "Black Myth: Wukong" has become a cultural masterpiece favored by the whole people?

Why has the Internet e-commerce, education and training industry returned to spring overnight, reappearing in the official discourse system, and entering the hall?

The times are turning pages.

Huge changes are happening one after another, which will inevitably affect the employment and fate of millions of people.

Thinking back to the ambitious Alibaba three years ago, many people will miss it.

It is really too much like the "Great Sage" Wukong - from e-commerce to finance, logistics, and even entertainment tourism, wherever the golden cudgel points, the wind and clouds change.

I still remember 2014, when Alibaba made a strong entry into the US capital market.

The stock price soared on the first trading day after listing, surpassing the total of the two major US e-commerce giants "Amazon + eBay".

A Wall Street fund manager lamented, "I have been investing in New York for more than ten years and have seen a lot of IPOs, but I was still shocked by Alibaba."

At that time, when talking about Amazon, Jack Ma's tone was simply Versailles: "Alibaba is the builder of e-commerce infrastructure, and our job is to encourage more companies to become Amazon."

Before the "three-year rectification", the ambitious Alibaba had a market value of up to 800 billion US dollars, ranking in the top ten in the world: now three years have passed - Microsoft's market value has doubled, Apple's market value has doubled, Google's market value has doubled, Facebook's market value has doubled, let alone the skyrocketing Nvidia, even the former main competitor Amazon, the market value has once broken through 2 trillion US dollars.

In contrast, Alibaba's market value has been halved, and it is now less than 1/9 of Amazon's, which is regrettable.

Alibaba, you can't delay any longer!

If you look closely, this time the State Administration for Market Regulation's announcement also shows clear support for Alibaba, and the words are full of encouragement.

Especially for the results of the three-year rectification, it has given full affirmation: the rectification work has achieved good results, the online retail market environment has been improved, fair competition order has been effectively restored, market development space has been continuously expanded, and the vitality of competition between platforms has been significantly increased.

The platform economy development quality and business environment continue to be optimized.

In response to this, Alibaba also said: This is a new starting point for development.

In the future, we will continue to be based on innovation, adhere to compliance operations, increase investment in technology, promote the healthy development of the platform economy, and create more value for society.

The return of the "Great Sage" is much anticipated.

So, why did the country put an end to the Alibaba rectification incident in August, allowing the platform economy to take a "reassuring pill"?

There are two signals worth noting.

First, at the most important political bureau meeting of the year in July, which mainly studies economic work, a keyword that has never appeared before - "anti-internal volume" was written into the meeting's communiqué: it is necessary to strengthen industry self-discipline and prevent "internal volume" malicious competition.

From the main tone of "anti-monopoly" three years ago to today's "anti-internal volume", the direction of the times has been completely different.

Insufficient competition needs anti-monopoly, and when competition is too fierce, "anti-internal volume" has become the main contradiction.

For the e-commerce industry, how to "anti-internal volume"?

Those who should be trembling are no longer Alibaba.

Second, three years ago, we emphasized "preventing disorderly expansion of capital", but today?

The country pays more attention to encouraging "strengthening patient capital".

The decision of the third plenary session in July clearly proposed to encourage and regulate the development of angel investment, venture capital, private equity investment, better play the role of government investment funds, and develop patient capital.

In fact, the platform economy is naturally patient capital, and generally does not aim at "quick in and out".

Alibaba's turning of the page is a major benefit for the entire Internet industry and platform economy, and will also affect the next economic trend.

In fact, not only the Internet industry, but also the gaming industry and education and training industry, which have been criticized the most in the past few years, have recently been "renamed".

The country is in a hurry, taking action to boost consumption and go all out for the economy.

Not long ago, the State Council issued the "Opinions on Promoting the High-quality Development of Service Consumption", which includes education and training, e-commerce, and gaming.

This is the first high-level document for the economic deployment work in the second half of the year, and it is also the first document specifically for service consumption.

The education and training industry is just back to the mainstream narrative of the official in this heavy document.

It is important to know that this is the first time "promoting education and training consumption" has been mentioned in a national document after the "double reduction" in 2021.

The specific expression is: promote colleges and universities, scientific research institutions, and social organizations to open high-quality educational resources to meet the diversified and personalized learning needs of the public.

Promote social training institutions to improve service quality according to public demand.

Guide schools to introduce high-quality public welfare after-school services of non-academic categories through purchasing services and other methods according to relevant regulations.

The direction is obviously changing.

Some people say, isn't it wrong?

Isn't it a misunderstanding?

In fact, although the document mainly points to non-academic training, vocational education, etc., it still has a very strong sign significance.

An expert has publicly said that the education and training in the document has a difference in connotation from the education and training mentioned in the "double reduction opinion".

From a policy perspective, it is not a relaxation of K9 education and training, but in implementation, they will affect each other.

This view is relatively objective.

It is important to know that even in the past two years, the education and training industry has not been completely "out of fire", but has been quietly growing in a special and deformed way.

The performance of the leading enterprises in the education and training industry is also warming up.

In the fiscal year of 2024, New Oriental's revenue reached 4.3136 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 43.9%, which has exceeded before the "double reduction" policy was implemented.

Next, the rapidly recovering education and training industry will be in line with policy regulations for training classification, and accelerate the trend of transformation and warming up.

The more intense contrast is the online game industry.

The State Council's "Opinions on Promoting the High-quality Development of Service Consumption" has written "online games" into a national-level document for the first time.

The "Opinion" mentions: improve the quality of online literature, online performance, online games, radio and television, and online audio-visual.

In fact, since this year, the official has been continuously releasing a loose signal for "online games".

The National Press and Publication Administration has issued nearly 800 game numbers this year, an increase of 25% year-on-year.

Guangdong even issued a notice in July: allowing games to be online for testing before getting the number.

"Black Myth: Wukong" was born in such a context, becoming a national-level game masterpiece.

Xinhua News Agency launched a 30-minute exclusive interview, and the People's Daily, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and others have praised it.

Yunnan Daily, Jiangxi Daily, Guizhou Radio and Television, Anhui Radio and Television, Chongqing Radio and Television and other mainstream media's official short video accounts have even collectively launched live game experiences!

This is the first time in history that mainstream media has fully supported the game industry, which was unimaginable in the past.

It is important to know that in 2018, the "Semi-Monthly Talk" under Xinhua News Agency once asked three questions in a row, blasting the game industry as "electronic opium" and "social cancer", with extremely fierce firepower.

The People's Daily also reprinted it.

Just last December, the National Press and Publication Administration issued a public opinion draft, mentioning that "online games should not set daily login, first recharge, continuous recharge and other inducement rewards", which was called the "strictest game new regulations".

The game industry suffered a black Friday, and the market value plummeted by 500 billion, and as a result, the official urgently deleted the draft for soliciting opinions, and then took a breath.

In just over half a year, it feels like a different world.

It can be seen that the popularity of "Black Myth: Wukong" is not accidental, and it can be said to be in line with "heaven's will".

On the day of going online, the total sales volume exceeded 4.5 million copies, and the gold absorption was 1.5 billion, which made Chinese culture popular overseas and many tourist attractions popular in China, creating a feast of traffic.

"The Great Sage" came at the right time.

What do Internet e-commerce, education and training, and the game industry have in common?

Have you found that they all belong to service consumption, which is precisely the breakthrough for the country to stimulate consumption and boost the economy at present, and they bear an unprecedented mission.

From January to July 2023, the total retail sales of social consumer goods only increased by 7.3%, but the service retail sales increased by as much as 20.3%.

Behind the rise and fall, it just reflects the huge potential of service consumption.

A phenomenon at present is that the scenic spot is crowded, the tickets for concerts and music festivals are hard to find, and the restaurant is on fire, but the physical consumption is relatively weak.

Many families are "saving as much as possible" and "using it if it can be used" for durable goods.

On the contrary, many people have a "willing" mentality towards service consumption: registering for classes to cultivate literacy = improving children's personal competitiveness, which is an educational investment and indispensable;Going out for group meals has a social aspect and is a necessary way to maintain interpersonal relationships, indispensable; takeout is affordable and of good quality, with just a few taps on the screen, the delivery guy arrives in a flash, it's like a "parent" for tired workers, indispensable; saving money during the normal times and going on a vacation to relax and broaden one's horizons during holidays is also indispensable; ...

In 2023, the proportion of service consumption in China's total consumption reached 45.2%, holding up "half the sky".

It is expected to exceed 50% by 2030.

Because of this, stimulating service consumption has become a "strong medicine" to cope with the downgrading of consumption.

In addition, service consumption is related to the tertiary industry, which is exactly the main channel for absorbing employment, with employed personnel accounting for 48.1% of the country.

Behind e-commerce on the internet stand millions of merchants, the education and training industry has millions of practitioners, and the user size of the gaming industry exceeds 600 million, with a very broad upstream and downstream influence.

Stimulating "service consumption" is also a key move to solve employment issues.

At the moment when we are "fully striving for the economy", to reverse social expectations, we need Alibaba to regain its momentum and set up the banner of a world-class enterprise, we need New Oriental, Xueersi, and TAL Education, and we also need more uplifting masterpieces like "Black Myth: Wukong".

Only when the "Great Sage" returns together can the economy unleash even greater vitality.

This is by no means a temporary measure, but a long-term strategy.

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