USD Rises to 42.63%, Euro Falls to 34.5%

USD Rises to 42.63%, Euro Falls to 34.5%

2024-09-26 61 36

Facing persistent inflation above 8%, the Federal Reserve has once again raised interest rates by 75 basis points, causing further shocks to the global capital market.

Due to market concerns about the future economic outlook, the U.S. stock market has also suffered significant losses.

This year, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates multiple times, and the U.S. dollar index has continued to strengthen, inevitably leading to the depreciation of other currencies.

The euro, pound, yen, and won have all depreciated; the pound has fallen more than 20% this year, and the euro has reached a 20-year low.

In the first half of this year, the euro depreciated by over 12%.

Among them, the yen has seen a significant depreciation, with the yen-to-U.S. dollar exchange rate hitting a 20-year low.

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After the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike last month, the yen's exchange rate depreciated again.

Due to the continuous depreciation of the exchange rate, Japan's GDP this year may revert to the level of 30 years ago, and with the current exchange rate, Japan's GDP for this year will be less than $4 trillion.

In addition, the Chinese yuan has broken the 7 mark, but it has only depreciated against the U.S. dollar and has appreciated against currencies such as the euro, pound, and yen.

On September 22, the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) released the latest report, showing that in August this year, the U.S. dollar accounted for 42.63% of international payments, up from 38.9% in the same period last year, an increase of 3.73 percentage points, and it remains in first place.

While the U.S. dollar has risen, the euro has fallen.

Data shows that in August this year, the euro's share of international payments was 34.5%, while it was over 36% in the same period last year.

European Union countries are highly dependent on Russian energy, especially natural gas, with 40% imported from Russia.

However, affected by events since March this year, energy prices in the EU have continued to rise, and energy supply is insufficient.

The market is worried about the energy and economic prospects of Europe, and investors are gradually abandoning the euro in favor of other safe-haven currencies.

This has led to a significant decrease in the payment share of the euro, and the euro has depreciated sharply this year.

As the world's second-largest payment currency, the euro was originally the only currency that could challenge the status of the U.S. dollar, but it is difficult to see how it can do so given the current situation.

According to SWIFT data, the pound's payment share in August was 6.45%, ranking third globally, and the pound has depreciated significantly this year; the yen's international payment share in August was 2.73%, ranking fourth globally; the Chinese yuan's payment share in August was 2.31%, ranking fifth globally.

The world has long suffered from the U.S. dollar!

Since the birth of the euro, it has been expected to achieve de-dollarization.

However, after the 2008 global financial crisis, the European debt crisis followed, and the euro was impacted.

The EU's GDP had originally surpassed that of the United States, and the euro continued to strengthen, but a few years later, the U.S. GDP overtook the EU again, and the euro depreciated.

Russia has been "de-dollarizing" for a long time, selling off hundreds of billions of U.S. bonds since 2014, almost "clearing out," and the Russian central bank has been continuously reducing the proportion of the U.S. dollar and significantly increasing the proportion of the Chinese yuan, all of which are real actions of de-dollarization.

However, looking at the world as a whole, this de-dollarization ratio is very low and it is difficult to shake the status of the U.S. dollar.

This year, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates multiple times, which will again be a plundering of global wealth.

Each time the U.S. dollar raises interest rates, it leads to a global flow of U.S. dollars back to the United States, driving the U.S. dollar index to strengthen, the U.S. dollar to appreciate, and other currencies to depreciate.

Economies with insufficient foreign exchange reserves and poor risk resistance face the reality of their wealth being harvested by the U.S. dollar.

However, the global status of the U.S. dollar has begun to decline.

Over the past few decades, the U.S. dollar has established a global monetary system, supported by a credit system until now.

But now, with U.S. national debt exceeding $31 trillion, the new round of U.S. dollar interest rate hikes poses risks to the global economy, and the United States is once again consuming its own credit.

In the long run, this will inevitably lead to the collapse of the U.S. dollar's credit system, but this process will be lengthy.

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