Hold Cash for Historic Lows

Hold Cash for Historic Lows

2024-07-28 100 92

On the eve of September 18th, the situation took a dramatic turn!

The A-share market encountered a "bloodbath," causing panic among retail investors who scattered and fled the market.

However, it was later discovered that everything was within the calculations of the big players.

The Federal Reserve's September interest rate meeting is imminent, and a rate cut is all but certain.

This is undoubtedly a significant positive for domestic liquidity.

Yet, it conceals deeper undercurrents.

Historical data analysis suggests that the stock market bottom will only arrive around early 2025.

This implies that there are several years of a harsh winter to endure.

Analysis points out that the unprecedented inversion of the U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds, lasting up to two years, often indicates an inevitable economic recession.

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Historical precedents also confirm that within 3-6 months after the inversion ends, the U.S. stock market is bound to experience a sharp decline.

Who is secretly manipulating all this?

The big players have already sensed the crisis and are reducing their holdings in U.S. stocks, bringing their positions below 50%.

It seems they have already foreseen everything and are well-prepared for the global storm.

Ordinary investors, however, can only passively accept this.

But this does not mean despair; instead, it should be seen as an opportunity to reshuffling the deck.

As long as we can patiently wait and carefully select stocks, we will surely usher in our own spring in the near future.

However, market turmoil is likely to continue in the short term.

On one hand, there is the pressure of the Federal Reserve's tightening policy, and on the other hand, there is the gloom of the global economic downturn.

In the face of such a storm, only by maintaining sufficient cash flow can we survive the turbulent times.

Of course, this does not mean being overly conservative.

On the contrary, we should seize the rare opportunity to boldly position ourselves at critical moments.

After all, only those who bravely move forward in the trough will reap the rewards at the peak.

In short, although the current situation is severe, it also contains infinite opportunities.

As long as we maintain a clear mind and firm belief, we will surely be able to write our own wonderful chapter in this changing situation.

At this moment, the movements of some industry giants have attracted everyone's attention.

For example, China's tech bigwigs are accelerating the reduction of their U.S. stock holdings and transferring funds to the domestic market.

They seem to have foreseen the future economic storm.

According to reliable news, the CEO of a well-known technology company recently publicly stated that there will be no significant uptrend in the next five years.

This big player, well-versed in the laws of economic cycles, asserts that the global economy is at the beginning of a long-term downward cycle.

This statement undoubtedly sends a strong warning signal to ordinary investors.

At the same time, another seasoned investment master also stated that the current P/E ratio of domestic stocks is close to a historical low, which means that the room for further decline is not too great.

He advises investors to be cautiously optimistic, seize investment opportunities, hold quality blue-chip stocks for the long term, and believe that there will always be gains.

However, we cannot ignore some negative factors.

For example, as the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, the monetary policies of countries around the world are tightening, which is bound to accelerate the pace of the global economic downturn.

Geopolitical uncertainties also add to the overall investment environment.

In the face of such a complex situation, how should investors respond?

A well-known private equity fund manager has made some suggestions.

He believes that the most important thing at this stage is to maintain sufficient cash positions, appropriately reduce risky assets, and focus on some high-quality stocks with defensive attributes.

After the market has bottomed out completely, gradually increase positions to seize the opportunities of a long-term bull market.

In summary, the current investment environment is indeed full of challenges, but it also breeds new hope.

As long as we maintain a rational and calm attitude, continue to learn and improve, we believe that we will surely be able to carve out a new career in this ever-changing situation.

Let us look forward to the future together, and surely we will usher in our own harvest time!

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