Massive Gains in Europe, America, and Asia-Pacific

Massive Gains in Europe, America, and Asia-Pacific

2024-08-22 155 57

The long-awaited interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve has finally landed, with a slightly more than expected 50 basis point reduction.

As a result, global assets have risen across the board.

The impact of the U.S. rate cut on A-shares is limited, while it is more beneficial for Hong Kong stocks, which have already seen five consecutive days of gains, with a surge of 2% yesterday, indicating signs of a new round of increases.

The impact on A-shares is relatively limited, partly because international funds have to go through a detour to enter A-shares, unlike Hong Kong stocks which can be accessed directly.

On the other hand, the proportion of international capital in A-shares is very small, with A-shares currently accounting for only 2.24% of the international MSCI weight, which is lower than India's share.

It's worth noting that in 2019, the proportion was about five times that of India.

The biggest benefit of the Fed's rate cut for A-shares is that it opens up space for the central bank to release liquidity.

The market's surge yesterday was due to expectations of a 25 basis point cut in the September LPR and a reduction in the weekend's existing mortgage interest rates.

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If neither of these positive expectations materialize this weekend, the market will continue to look for a bottom in the short term.

Several experts interviewed recently believe that as we enter the fourth quarter, the central bank will introduce more incremental policies, with room and possibility for reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and adjustments to existing mortgage interest rates.

The coach's view is that interest rate cuts and reductions in existing mortgage rates are highly likely events.

Looking at the performance of M2 and M1, the spread has further widened, mainly due to the large difference between new housing and existing mortgage interest rates.

Many people have been repaying their mortgages in advance, which has drained liquidity from the market and also suppressed consumption.

Therefore, it is imperative to reduce the existing mortgage interest rates, with the key being the extent of the reduction, after all, banks are the "beloved sons."

Looking at the time window, today is the futures delivery day, next Wednesday is the option exercise day combined with the arrival of the National Day holiday, and the risk appetite of funds will decrease, so it is better to be cautious in the short term.

Last night, the three major U.S. stock indexes performed the strongest, with the Nasdaq surging by 2.51%, the Dow Jones rising by 1.26%, and the S&P 500 rising by 1.7%.

However, only the Nasdaq did not set a new historical high, implying that the Nasdaq will face a catch-up rally in the short term, and it is inevitable to set a new historical high.

The Fed's cut of 50 basis points is beneficial for technology stocks with high valuations, and technology stocks are expected to see a catch-up rally in the short term.

Last night, Nvidia, Apple, and META rose by nearly 4%, TSMC and ASML rose by more than 5%, and Tesla surged by more than 8%.

The surge in U.S. technology stocks will inevitably drive the domestic technology stocks with high correlation, especially after a significant adjustment recently, and they have the demand for a catch-up rally.

When selecting stocks, pay attention to industry leaders, especially those that continue to release high-growth performance.

Once the market stabilizes and strengthens, it will inevitably be favored by the market's main funds.

In addition, mergers and acquisitions have become a hot spot in the market recently, and the market cannot be strong without securities firms.

Securities firms have the expectation of rebounding from oversold conditions, mergers and acquisitions, and driving the market up, so they also have the conditions to strengthen.

Finally, let's talk about today's A-shares.

Affected by the surge in European and American markets last night, the Asia-Pacific region opened collectively higher today, with the Nikkei index rising by 1.9%, South Korea's increase exceeding 1%, and Taiwan's weighted index rising by more than 1.2%.

Today's A-shares are bound to open higher.

Looking at yesterday's market, the pessimistic expectations were strong, and the market still relies on a certain team to sustain life.

Today's expectation of a cut in the September LPR has fallen through, and be wary of a high retreat.

Investment has risks, and entering the market should be done with caution!

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