The Federal Reserve's expectations for interest rate cuts have been changing repeatedly, with no hope for a rate cut in the first half of 2024.

Under the premise that interest rate hikes lead to a negative growth expectation for the Fed's economy, why is the United States still determined to go its own way?

Perhaps the rate cut itself is just a feint, and the current focus is still on further harvesting China.

Yellen even stated that China cannot achieve long-term economic growth through exports, while also demanding that the prices of Chinese export goods increase.

Yellen's contradictory words and actions are the real Trojan horse.

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No hope for a rate cut in the first half of the year?

On April 6th, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States for March, showing an increase of 303,000 people, which greatly exceeded market expectations by 50%.

On the surface, this data means that the U.S. economy is growing strongly, and the expectation for a rate cut will also be postponed accordingly, because the purpose of a rate cut is to stimulate economic development.

So we might be confused, why are U.S. companies still expanding under the high interest rates in the United States?

In fact, we have all been deceived.

First, we need to look at the types of jobs in the U.S. non-farm employment.

Second, the growth of the U.S. economy and employment largely benefits from the bubble in the capital market.

Among the 300,000 new jobs added in the United States in March, 71,000 were government employees, accounting for about a quarter.

We know that the biggest problem in the United States now is the unlimited U.S. debt, and these are all deficits in the United States!

The increase in employees has further exacerbated this contradiction.

In fact, it has not solved the problem, but has made the problem more severe.

For the U.S. government, it only needs to start the printing press, and these people will have wages.

But how long can this last?

At the beginning of this month, the U.S. economic institution simulated the U.S. debt 1 million times, and the data showed that the U.S. debt is completely on an unsustainable path.

The latest warning from the U.S. Budget Office is that in 10 years, the U.S. debt will increase from last year's 97% to 139%, reaching the highest in nearly 100 years.

And the normal level of government debt does not exceed 70%, which means that U.S. debt will inevitably collapse.

In addition, the U.S. service industry has added about 140,000 people, including hotels, leisure, health care, and retail, which are not related to the increase in manufacturing positions.

And why is the number of people in the high-end manufacturing industry actually declining?

Major internet companies are still laying off people.

What does this indicate?

It can only indicate that the current economic growth, that is, the increase in consumption, is driven by the false prosperity of the U.S. stock market, which is very similar to the Japanese economy at the end of the 1980s.

This has created the current bizarre situation in the United States where high inflation, high borrowing, and high employment coexist.

At that time, Japan was on the eve of the collapse of the real estate and stock market bubbles.

At that time, Japanese consumption surged, and big gold chains and small watches were indispensable, starting a wave of global buying, and at that time, the land price in Tokyo alone could buy the entire United States.

But after that, the real estate and stock market bubbles both burst, and the Japanese economy fell into a collapse.

The United States is now facing two major crises: the U.S. debt crisis and the stock market bubble.

And these are all like dominoes, once a link goes wrong, the hegemony of the United States will collapse in an instant.

The United States understands this truth better than anyone else, so why do they still do so?

Take U.S. debt as an example, it is very likely to be in a dilemma, drinking poison to quench thirst.

Since this is the case, is there a solution?

Of course there is, that is to continue the routine after the 2008 subprime crisis, continue to increase the issuance of U.S. debt, and China continues to increase the purchase of U.S. debt.

Feint?

How does the United States want to achieve this goal?

It is to exert extreme pressure on China, to give up the top of the industrial chain such as technological innovation, otherwise the United States will decouple and break the chain.

Raising interest rates and delaying rate cuts have become one of the important tools to suppress and coerce us.

However, the United States must also understand that once the interest rate hike is delayed, it will inevitably lead to a further reduction in the global demand for the dollar, and the renminbi and global currency swap to keep warm together, and the dollar wants to continue to harvest the next time, it is likely to be more difficult.

In addition, the so-called rate cut is likely to be a feint, and the so-called employment data itself is very watery.

That is to say, if the U.S. economy is good, Yellen will not come to China, we can look at Yellen's remarks, many of which are accusing China, such as saying that overcapacity, export prices to the United States are too low, and so on.

According to Yellen's view, isn't a low price a good thing?

The American people spend less money, which is equivalent to China indirectly raising wages for the United States, isn't it good?

Yellen doesn't care about the interests of his own people, but instead points fingers at China's problems, and the purpose behind it is naturally not simple.

It's heartbreaking that some Chinese people are also making a fuss.

Because the United States forces China to raise the prices of exported goods, it can support the strength of the dollar to a certain extent, to offset the market occupied by the renminbi.

The reason is that most countries still pay for Chinese goods through the dollar, and the price increase of goods requires more reserves of the dollar.

Essentially, it is to harvest China, and some domestic people praise Yellen because of her simple way of doing things.

She lowers her posture in diplomatic occasions, smiles, and is called a "kind elder".

However, it needs to be soberly recognized that the above factors cannot prove that Yellen's visit is to enhance the friendship or friendly cooperation between the two countries.

In fact, as a Jewish American Treasury Secretary, and a former Federal Reserve Chairman, Yellen's ability to control wealth is amazing, and it is not difficult to create a close-to-the-people image.

When dining in a hotel in Guangzhou, she took the initiative to lower the screen partition, pretending to dine with ordinary citizens, deliberately showing her close-to-the-people attitude, which is a bit too much.

When discussing the interests of the two countries, Yellen is not always kind and approachable, and when the conflict of interests comes, she will ruthlessly fight for the advantage.

She even said that China cannot achieve long-term economic growth through exports, what does she want to do?

Suppress technology, and don't allow exports?

Will this not lead to an increase in our unemployment?

Yellen opposes the "decoupling of China and the United States", not because of any good feelings towards China, but purely to promote the record-high $34 trillion U.S. Treasury bonds, and China is undoubtedly an important buyer of Treasury bonds.

Therefore, all her so-called "positive signals" released externally are essentially hoping that China can increase the purchase of U.S. Treasury bonds.

Whether it is raising interest rates or lowering interest rates, Yellen's visit to China is a means, and maintaining American hegemony is the ultimate goal.

In order to achieve the goal, everything they do is carefully designed.

The current economic situation in the United States is quite complex.

Although inflation has eased compared to the previous two years, it is still at a high level, and there is still a big gap from the Federal Reserve's plan to maintain inflation in the United States at 2% for a long time.

Yellen came to China and accused China of overcapacity.

Even if there is overcapacity, it is harmful to China but beneficial to the United States, because this is reducing inflation in the United States.

Yellen's definition of "overcapacity" is too narrow, limited only to production capacity beyond domestic consumption.

If all countries only meet domestic demand, there is no international trade.

One example is that about one-fifth of U.S. agricultural output goes to our country.

Intel and Nvidia's revenue from China accounts for nearly 20%, not to mention Apple and Tesla.

Last year, German car companies produced a total of 4.1 million cars, of which 3.1 million were successfully exported overseas.

According to this logic, all the above-mentioned Western countries' exports are included in the so-called "overcapacity".

But why does Yellen want to accuse our industrial policy for no reason?

Yellen's view that China has overcapacity is the opposite.

Overcapacity is what Yellen said publicly in Guangzhou, China.

China has overcapacity, low-end exports to the United States, and American manufacturing workers lose their jobs.

This is Yellen's American logic.

She even said that China is a big country and cannot rely on exports to drive long-term economic growth.

Her heart is sinister, why?

Obviously, she is trying to cut off the relationship between China and the world.

In fact, we need to export to create foreign exchange, encourage Chinese goods to go overseas and enterprises to go overseas.

To further expand the size of China's economy, the United States harvests the world through financial hegemony, but does not allow China to play its own advantages and earn money through manufacturing.

This hegemonic logic is what every Chinese person should care about.

However, the upcoming global economic recession cycle in 2024 and Biden's pressure to seek re-election require the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to promote domestic economic growth.

In dealing with inflation and promoting economic development, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and Yellen must balance and find the best boundary.

At this stage, the U.S. consumer price index is still at a high level.

It is important to know that this is the result after the United States has raised interest rates many times, indicating that the United States has issued too many dollars, and the United States itself has completely eaten it up.

When the Federal Reserve began to implement the interest rate hike policy, the action was described by the outside world as the dollar's "scythe" behavior towards the world, because it would make the dollar stronger, attract global funds to flow in, and then trigger a tight foreign exchange and fiscal situation in various countries.

From the market performance, the U.S. dollar index has continued to rise recently, and it has risen from 100.8 at the end of last year to 104.48, causing other currencies to face devaluation pressure.

In addition, the Chinese yuan also fell sharply this Monday, first affecting the stability of the entire financial market.

So far, the exchange rate of the yuan has remained at a high level of 7.25.

Even the developed country of Japan has also suffered a depreciation impact after raising interest rates, and the range has reached the highest in decades.

It can be seen that Buffett and other American investors are using the differences in fund flows and zero interest rate policies in the operation of the Japanese stock market, and loans only need to pay very low funds to obtain excess returns.

However, behind the depreciation of the yen, who is the real beneficiary?

In short, whether it is Buffett's investment strategy or the flow of funds from various countries in the market, it is all dominated by the U.S. foreign exchange policy.Therefore, the Federal Reserve's "harvesting" of the global economy has not yet come to an end, and the coming months may usher in the most challenging times.

If we do not agree to continue purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds, the United States will continue to raise interest rates or make concessions, which is the policy of the stick and the carrot.

When the balance of interests reaches our psychological expectations, perhaps we will fulfill Yellen's wishes.

Of course, it is still the critical stage of the tug-of-war between the two sides, and this is also the key reason why Yellen has visited China again after half a year.