Yesterday, the two markets showed significant divergence, with the main board being strong and the dual-creation boards being weak, especially the STAR 50, which has been falling continuously recently, only 8 points away from a new low.

After the Mid-Autumn Festival, the overall market has achieved four consecutive days of gains, which is surprising and unexpected, but financial consumers are still losing money.

The Shanghai Composite Index (SCI) surged, mainly around the 2,700 point line, with mysterious funds starting to support the market.

The four major banks and the three major oil companies have all started to strengthen, and their technical patterns are showing bullish signals.

Ningde Times has also performed strongly recently, preserving the ChiNext and Shenzhen Component Index, so the market is unlikely to fall sharply in the short term, but it is also difficult to rise sharply.

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Both the main board and the ChiNext have seen divergence among heavyweight stocks.

For example, the four major banks and the three major oil companies have risen, but the super heavyweight Kweichow Moutai has fallen, offsetting the lift to the overall market; Ningde Times has risen sharply, but the second-largest weight, Mindray Medical and Sungrow Power, has fallen, offsetting the effect of Ningde Times.

Why is there such divergence?

It is still the fault of the financial derivatives delivery once or twice a month.

Especially the exercise of options, which is like borrowing chips from the dealer to buy up and down, requiring a certain proportion of margin from the dealer.

The dealer wants to harvest your margin, which is to make the buyers and sellers fail within the delivery period.

The best way is to use the rise and fall of heavyweights to offset each other.

Now you understand why the market is difficult to rise.

There are many uncertain factors in the market this week: 1.

Wednesday is the option exercise day; 2.

Thursday is the FTSE A50 delivery day; 3.

Friday is the last trading day before the holiday for selling stocks to withdraw cash.

In this environment, the market is difficult to strengthen, so it is still weak and bottoming out in the short term.

The STAR 50 has a more dispersed weight and no super heavyweights, so it has been falling continuously.

Last night, the U.S. stock market closed slightly higher, with technology stocks rising and falling, which has a limited impact on A shares, but the FTSE A50 has risen, closing up 0.38%.

The coach believes that it is related to the press conference held by the State Council Information Office at 9 a.m. this morning, when the governor of the People's Bank of China, the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the director of the Financial Regulatory Administration will answer questions from reporters.

We can look forward to whether there will be any unexpected good news.

In addition, the People's Bank of China has lowered the reverse repo rate for 14 days from 1.95% to 1.8%, a decrease of 10 basis points.

If there is unexpected good news in the morning, the Shanghai Composite Index is likely to fill the gap above, but the probability of a sharp rise is low, after all, the turnover is insufficient, and the pessimistic expectation will reach the freezing point.

The market is likely to see a big Yang line before the holiday: 1.

Since July, there has been a big Yang line on the last day of each month.

2.

Before September 30, the reverse repo bonds that were previously lent out must be returned.

3.

Betting on good news during the long holiday.

4.

From past experience, the probability of rising on the last trading day of the long holiday is very large.

In summary, next Monday, the market is expected to close with a big Yang line, which can be expected.

In terms of sectors, the United States is going to take action against China's unmanned driving, banning the use of Chinese unmanned driving technology and components in the United States, which will have a certain impact on the short-term impact of unmanned driving.

Last night, Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostic said in a speech that he fully supports a 50 basis point rate cut in September, because inflation has improved and the labor market has cooled down faster than expected.

Minneapolis Fed Chairman Kashkari said that he expects a further 50 basis point rate cut this year.

At 2:30 p.m. this afternoon, Huawei's autumn new product launch, do not chase high in the short term for Huawei concept stocks, be careful of good news.

I hope that financial consumers in A shares can also feel like American and Indian stockholders what it is like to create a historical high.

Investment has risks, and entry into the market should be cautious!