In China's major cities, who will be the next global focus?

Gaining insight into the future development of cities is directly related to everyone's future!

According to the 2023 GDP rankings of major cities across the country, excluding the special administrative regions of Hong Kong and Macau, as well as cities under the jurisdiction of Taiwan.

The top 10 cities in mainland China are Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Chongqing, Suzhou, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Wuhan, and Nanjing.

Tianjin, one of the four municipalities directly under the central government, was kicked out of the top 10 and ranked 11th, followed by cities such as Ningbo, Qingdao, Wuxi, and Changsha.

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However, relying solely on GDP rankings to judge the future development momentum of China's major cities, and using this as a reference for personal relocation, work, and development direction, oversimplifies the issue.

The above data rankings actually hide many parts worth delving into.

Among these cities ranking at the top, although they differ in administrative level and positioning, they are all considered first-tier cities in terms of development scale, so it is relatively reasonable to compare them together in terms of economic development.

Although these cities differ in administrative level, some are directly under the central government, some are sub-provincial cities, and some are just ordinary prefecture-level cities.

In terms of positioning, some are national central cities, and some are planned single-list cities.

However, heroes do not ask their origins.

Suzhou, which is only a prefecture-level city in terms of administrative level, can squeeze into the top 10 and rank 6th, while Xi'an, as a national central city, has already fallen out of the top 20 in GDP rankings, even lagging behind Hefei, which is only a provincial capital city but has become the "venture capital city" of the internet celebrity "new first-tier" cities.

And even Chongqing, a national central city ranked 5th, is it really stronger in economic development strength than Suzhou, ranked 6th?

It is important to know that by the end of 2023, the permanent population of Chongqing reached more than 31.91 million people, which is about 2.5 times that of Suzhou with more than 12.95 million permanent residents.

However, Chongqing's economic output of more than 3.014 trillion yuan in 2023 is only more than 500 billion yuan than Suzhou's more than 2.4653 trillion yuan, and the GDP is only 1.2 times that of Suzhou.

At the same time, the entire area of Chongqing is 82,402 square kilometers, which is nearly 10 times that of Suzhou's 8,657 square kilometers, and in terms of scale, Chongqing is actually competing with major cities with almost half the strength of a province, which seems a bit unfair.

Of course, some people will definitely feel aggrieved for Chongqing.

Chongqing is located in the southwestern mountainous area, with mountains and hills accounting for 98%, and river valley plains only about 2% of the area, and the urban area of Chongqing is known as the 8D version of the city.

In contrast, Suzhou is located in the central part of the Yangtze River Delta, with flat land area exceeding 55%, and is adjacent to one of China's five major freshwater lakes, Taihu Lake, and has distinct seasons and abundant rainfall.

It has been known as the Jiangnan corn town since ancient times, and has been a major grain warehouse in the country since the Song Dynasty, with the reputation of "when Suzhou and Huzhou are ripe, the world is sufficient."

Even relying on the location advantage of being close to the country's largest economic development city, Shanghai, it is strange that economic development is not good.

Yes, this is exactly what we need to discuss.

Some cities belong to "born with a good life", even without too much policy support and resource inclination from the country, they can still rely on their innate geographical and location advantages to become a key player in the country's economic development.

And some other cities may not have such obvious economic location advantages, but under the inclination of national policies, resources, and investments, they can have some unique industrial advantages, which can not only undertake key projects for the country in some aspects, but also drive the development of surrounding areas to a certain extent, and even balance the key development weight of the east and west, north and south.

However, the development of such cities depends on national policies and strategic directions, there is no eternal good, and it is almost impossible to rush to the front line, such as Chengdu, Wuhan, Xi'an and other cities, although they are very famous in the country, and they also bear the important task of national central cities in various development blocks, but if you look into the economic development, it is a bit less outstanding.

Therefore, the GDP rankings of these cities actually have no problem from the data, but there is a lot to say when combined with their own development situation.

And to explore the focus of development between China's major cities in the future, we must see through the clouds and see the real development scene, and even find cities with greater development potential.

Of course, it is not that cities relying on policy inclination have no prospects, the key is to see if they can seize the opportunity.

Primary school students know that Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are the first-tier cities in China, and the top flow of economic development.

However, just these four cities also have differences between relying on their own strength, national key investment, or a combination of the two.

First, Beijing is the largest city in the country, relying on key investment for development, and this "investment" is not only how much infrastructure or industrial funds the country has invested in Beijing, but more importantly, as the capital, after obtaining the national political center status, it naturally forcibly gathers the headquarters of major state-owned enterprises, state-owned enterprises, top schools, medical care, and entertainment media and other resources from all over the country to Beijing.

This is a very strong external driving force for Beijing's development, so even if Beijing's natural and transportation conditions are not so good, it can also create advantageous development conditions.

And Shanghai, the best city for economic development in China, even though it also has a lot of policy resource support, has actually been leading the trend of China's economic development since the modern opening up.

Although Shanghai's opening up is accompanied by the humiliating history of modern China, it also proves that it can be chosen by Western powers from a small county, and successively set up concessions here, and eventually develop a ten-mile foreign settlement.

It shows that it must have unique advantages in geographical resources, not only located at the forefront of the Yangtze River Delta, at the intersection of the Yangtze River estuary and the East China Sea, but also with a network of waterways and rivers, which is a key point for the eastern part of China to connect with the river and the sea.

More importantly, it is adjacent to Hangzhou Bay in the south and the Yangtze River in the north, which has an irreplaceable role in the economic communication and deep penetration into the eastern and central regions, and has an irreplaceable role in the shipping transportation node.

In addition, it is also at the center of China's north-south coastline, so such a city, after the establishment of New China, especially after the reform and opening up, has become one of the engines of China's economic development.

Relying on the pillar industries such as automobiles, electronics, and finance, it has also developed into China's international economic and financial trade, shipping, and scientific and technological innovation center, and it is likely to become the economic center of Asia and even the world in the future.

Similar to this is Guangzhou, located in the Pearl River Delta, although it is located in the south of China, but it is closer to the Eurasian shipping route through the South China Sea.

It is not only an important port city for China's foreign trade, but also an important starting point of the Maritime Silk Road since the Tang Dynasty.

Even during the Ming and Qing Dynasties, when the policy of isolation was implemented, it was still the only special trade port open to the outside world in China at that time.

Although the terrain conditions of the Pearl River Delta where Guangzhou is located are not as good as those of Shanghai, it can still rely on its location advantages to become a major economic growth pole in China in the process of deepening global economic trade.

Of course, with the birth of the Shenzhen miracle, Guangzhou's economic status has been somewhat threatened, and with the development of Shenzhen's high-tech industry, it has become an international technology industry innovation center known as "China's Silicon Valley", and has also left Guangzhou behind in terms of economy.

This is not only the role of Shenzhen's special economic zone, but also the result of its complementary development with Hong Kong, a world financial center.

More importantly, although Shenzhen is located in Guangdong Province, in essence, it is still an extension of Beijing in terms of policy power and industrial investment, and is more like a "flying territory" of Beijing or the central government in Guangdong, so it is unlikely to surpass Beijing, but it will definitely have a leading advantage in some fields.

As for Guangzhou, it will not be too bad with the development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.

It's just that compared with the previous top two in the country, there is a bit of a gap.

Therefore, the above several first-tier cities will inevitably become the focus of China's economic development in the future, which is undoubtedly true.

However, at the same time, everyone knows that there are many development opportunities here, so all kinds of top talent resources are gathered here, and the competition is already too saturated.

Relatively speaking, some central and western cities that need to rely on policies or their own development potential may become new highlights of development.

Suzhou and Hangzhou, on the one hand, are not dazzling in terms of national economic development, but on the other hand, they have already ranked in the top 10 of the national city economic strength, and are close to Shanghai, which is a big tree, and the economic development is expected to be a type in the future.

In contrast, the prefecture-level cities in the Pearl River Delta region, such as Foshan and Dongguan, even with the reputation of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, the market has increased, but the actual level of economic development and potential is still a bit lacking.

Don't look at these areas relying on the industrial east wind of Guangdong and Shenzhen, industrial development has penetrated every "capillary" in the town, and the urbanization rate has reached more than 90% or even 95%.

However, compared with Ningbo, a city in Zhejiang that does not show off, it is slightly inferior.

Ningbo seems low-key, but it has a strong industrial base, not only has 122 listed companies and 104 industrial single champions, but also ranks 8th in per capita disposable income in the country, which is a rich economic area, so it is likely to follow Suzhou and Hangzhou in the future, surpassing Tianjin and Nanjing to become the 10th in the country.

Of course, these are actually still competing in their own location advantages, development potential, and industrial layout capabilities.

Chengdu and Wuhan, the two major central cities, belong to cities directly invested by the country, which is a bit like the country feeding them directly.

For example, Chengdu has already had a Shuangliu International Airport, but later built a Tianfu International Airport, becoming a city with two international airports.

The passenger throughput of the two airports in 2023 reached about 75 million.The current permanent population of Sichuan Province is just under 84 million, yet Chengdu Tianfu International Airport is still expanding with the construction of Terminals T3 and T4.

It is expected that by 2025, a single airport will be able to handle a passenger throughput of up to 90 million people.

Additionally, in terms of subway construction, although Chengdu canceled 19 lines during the central government's halt and restrictions on subway construction in 2023, it is still striving to reach 850 kilometers of rail transit by 2025.

These infrastructure and transportation facility constructions, which are significantly higher than the city's current needs, are paving the way for future development.

Similar to Chengdu, Wuhan is also continuously expanding its airport terminals and other transportation facilities.

Although not as grand in scale as Chengdu, Wuhan, with its central location and as a core city in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, has become the largest water, land, and air transportation hub in China's inland areas, with its high-speed rail network spreading across most of the country.

Of course, if a city does not have such advantageous geographical resources and does not hold the status of a national central city, it needs to prepare to take over the industrial transfer from first-tier cities while looking for its own potential for development.

Among them, Hefei is a city with unique insights in development investment.

As for other cities not mentioned, as long as they follow the above-mentioned approach, they can roughly analyze how they will develop at the corresponding level in the future.